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Friday, October 29, 2021

Third worst flooding EVER

 OK, some caveats:

1.  This is just Annapolis, MD.

2.  Record goes back to 1929, so interpret as you will.

3.  There are lots of standards for sea level; this one uses MLLW and NAVD88 (which for Annapolis, mostly just by chance, is the same as MSL).  If you want to deal with these projections, you have worry about those differences.

4.  This is completely unofficial, not peer-reviewed, and represents solely my opinions and observations.  I was just out getting soaked, and I think the model is pretty good.  Pictures to follow.

These were created in MICRODEM, using the 2017 Anne Arundel county lidar survey.

Click on the images to see the full resolution.

This prediction is 2 feet lower than Isabel

The NOAA tide gauge on predictions:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=apam2



The map below, created with MICRODEM, shows the expected flooding levels all of Friday afternoon.  There are three roads to the NE corner of this part of Annapolis, and all will be flooding.  No parking, and no excess parking capacity elsewhere.



Max inundation Saturday morning will be worse than this projection; in the last hour, the max level was raised from 5.0 feet to 5.2 feet (MLLW)






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