Is Isaias the next Isabel?

A hurricane is moving up the East Coast, and might affect Naptown.  Many people want to prepare (no more toilet paper or beer, maybe).  Sandbags.  Move everything to the attic.  Mostly as far north, and inland, as we are, the worst we experience is some lost power, and maybe tree branches knocked down, and those two are related.

But, there was Isabel.

Isabel brought a lot of water, and flooded a lot of low-lying ground.  Cleanup and repair cost a lot (Wikipedia says $110 million in 2003 dollars).

Flooding model for Isabel from https://www.usna.edu/Users/oceano/pguth/website/storm_surge/flooding.htm, which is not an official statement from any organization and is the personal research of a single person.  This shows water level at 2 m NAVD, displayed in ArcGIS Earth.

Isabel was so bad because the storm track was west of the Chesapeake Bay, and the counterclockwise winds forced water from the Atlantic into the the Bay.  As the water moved north and the area of the Bay decreased, there was nowhere for the water to go but up, flooding.

Official NOAA track of all hurricanes in 2003.  Isabel, #9, tracks west of the Bay.

Isaias, on the other hand, will fill a track to the east of the Bay.  The winds in the bay will be blowing from the northeast, forcing water out of the bay, making the chance of significant flooding from the Bay.  The buildings whose doors open into the natural drainage, on the other hand (traitor-racist-father of oceangraphy types of buildings) are likely to see the same results they get with every good rainstorm that brings a few inches of rain in a short time.

Dorian inspired revision to the official NOAA projected track for Isaias, which with  an abundance of caution can be used to call for action in anticipation of flooding that is not likely to happen.

The "I" storm for 2020 is arriving at the start of 2020, whereas the "I" storm for 2003 came over a month later in September.  The storms are apparently getting worse (our leaders have no idea why), and we will get another in Naptown where we see kayakers downtown.  Forturnately it won't be Isaias.